I am approaching drafts very differently this year. I have always been of the mind that you need to stockpile hitters to accumulate counting stats — pitching can be managed. But it seems that MLB’s new rules are going to increase the supply of those batting stats up and down the draft board, so maybe we don’t need to overpay for them.
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Here’s my three-tiered plan for 2023:
1. Invest deep in dominant starters
My 2023 approach begins with one player in the global population that I have been trying to draft onto every one of my teams and paying whatever it takes to get him. I know, that is a recipe for disaster. It hasn’t stopped me.
The odd part of this crusade is that it has been incredibly easy to land this player. He has been available to me in the first round of every draft, no matter where I’ve been seeded. Watching the ADP trends, he is a consistent second-rounder, rarely going higher than late in the first round. Over the past six weeks, he’s gone as high as No. 6 and as low as No. 36. Earlier in the winter, at least one brave soul drafted him No. 1, to which I stood up and applauded. He is now my anchor starter on most of my snake draft squads.
In auctions, he hasn’t been costing me very much either. I drafted him for $32 in LABR-NL a few weekends ago. I told the others that I would have gone to $40 — I got audible gasps. But I now roster Corbin Burnes on nearly all my teams, and I couldn’t be happier. If I could draft him in my AL-only league, I would too. (Nope, just kidding. I’m not crazy.)
In looking at the ADPs as compared to past years, I am stunned that pitchers have been going later than normal overall. This is the way I see it:
- Offense is going to be up this year. Hits, steals, runs… will all be bigger numbers than in the past. We’re already seeing it in spring training.
- Pitcher ERAs are going to go up in tandem. It just makes sense, especially for contact hurlers.
- Drafters don’t seem to be committing to the new rules and are valuing players as if they will all be affected about the same, one way or the other. Pay more for hitters, pay less for pitchers. The tide lifts or lowers all boats.
- But it doesn’t.
High strikeout front-line starting pitchers have to be worth more, especially those who are healthy and expected to throw a lot of innings. These types of pitchers will be less affected by the changes.
Maybe Burnes doesn’t keep his ERA under 3.00 again, but if he’s at 3.10 and the other elite arms are all over 3.25, that’s worth something. And those massive strikeout numbers will also keep hits in check.
For what it’s worth, I’d pay a buck more for guys like Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman, too. And I might even do it with Burnes already on my roster. Pocket aces was never something I bought into, but it seems to me that supply and demand almost… well, demands it. I was the guy who invented the LIMA Plan and its $60 pitching staff, but this is one year that spending $100 on pitchers — focusing solely on big strikeout starters and relievers — may make sense.
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2. Power early, speed later
Spending more on pitching means we have to find economies on the batting side. For the past decade, we’ve over-drafted steals early because there were only flawed scraps in later rounds. But we’ve already seen evidence that steals will be plentiful this year. So, I’m focusing my early picks and $30 buys on power. That means it’s Yordan Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over Trea Turner and Bobby Witt. Turner and Witt are still highly valuable, but their steals can be purchased later.
Like ex-Mets Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez — they could swipe more bags. Youthful legs are gonna run, so give me some Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy. I’d rather pay an extra buck for Gunnar Henderson and Oneil Cruz than market prices for the aging wheels of Starling Marte or Whit Merrifield.
3. Open up risk tolerance
For me, this starts with Byron Buxton.
From a purely skills metrics perspective, I rank Buxton inside the Top 10 of all fantasy hitters. Of course, that is offset by the fact that we can’t seem to get more than about 350 AB out of him in any given year. But at his current ADP, just inside the Top 100, there is so much potential profit.
Despite all the missed time, Buxton has been displaying consistently rising power skills. The 28 HR he hit last year in 340 AB pro-rates to 45 over 550 AB. While that may be unreasonable to expect, 35-40 HR is probably not, even if his playing time lands somewhere between 450 and 500 AB.
While Buxton hasn’t posted double-digit steals since 2019, the 29 SB he notched in 2017 may still be in his skill set. His speed skill metrics are still strong, and in fact were vintage in 2022 — he just didn’t run. His recent spate of hip woes was the reason, but the Twins have been bringing him along slowly this spring in hopes that he can improve his durability.
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Yes, Buxton has spent 300 days on the IL over the past five years. But drafting him is all about roster construction. If you build a low-risk roster in the first 5-6 rounds, grabbing him around pick 90-95 makes sense. Your roster needs to have some risk in order to find upside, and what better target than someone with his elite skill set?
Other risky players to take a chance on in the right roster construction include Nick Lodolo and Andrew Heaney, who can give you mega-Ks. Tuck Andrew Painter away on your reserve list, along with, randomly, oft-injured Wil Myers and Mitch Garver. These are all highly skilled players whose cost is all upside — cut them if they don’t put up numbers. There are so many of them, really. The end game is all about embracing risk.
In the end, it’s all about optimal roster construction. Invest in healthy, stable foundation players with a focus on power pitchers and power hitters. Find your pockets of speed during the mid-game and open up your risk tolerance as you go. The end game should be all about risky upside. Your $1, or Round 20-23 picks, should not be roster fillers — they should all be players who have put up better stats at some point in their career — majors or minors.
(Top photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
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